Chapter 1429: Chapter 1428: A Matter of Probability
The 54th Super Bowl, who will reach the top?
Will it be the San Francisco 49ers emerging triumphant, replicating the Kansas City Chiefs’ miracle of clinching the top spot in the 2017 season, or will the Kansas City Chiefs achieve an unprecedented undefeated season, accomplishing the feat of a three-peat championship?
It can be foreseen that no matter the outcome, everyone will witness a historic moment together. No one wants to miss it, and no one should.
From professional experts to the general public, discussions and debates are rampant and widespread.
Despite the Kansas City Chiefs’ unbelievable undefeated season, numerous signs indicate the defending champions are determined to win this match; but in the world of competitive sports, anything is possible, especially on the decisive stage of a final, where the outcome is a 50/50 chance for both sides.
Moreover, the San Francisco 49ers are definitely not an easy opponent.
Even setting aside the mental and physical exhaustion of the Kansas City Chiefs’ undefeated season, the San Francisco 49ers have the strength to defeat the Chiefs—
On paper analysis, this is indeed the case.
Most importantly, the fully transformed and rising San Francisco 49ers have not faced the Kansas City Chiefs in the regular season, which means there are no references or analytical samples, even for Shanahan and Reed, leading to countless suspense and traps.
It is noteworthy that in the pre-season, the San Francisco 49ers did confront the Kansas City Chiefs, and the victory belonged to the 49ers.
Precisely because of this, as people look forward to the Super Bowl, all possibilities are open, with “within the league” ten experts debating fiercely.
Blair Butt, the flag-bearer of the league’s “Li Wei Hater”, repeatedly defeated yet fights on despite the odds, loving Li Wei like “a first love” even though being crushed countless times.
The heart that hates Li Wei has never changed.
Standing at the crossroads of history, despite the momentum and probability seemingly favoring the Kansas City Chiefs, Butt remains firmly on the opposite side.
God, Butt is willing to stake everything he has to pray, begging, please do not let the Kansas City Chiefs complete a three-peat undefeated Super Bowl run, because it will propel Li Wei to Hall of Fame status. A third-year running back receiving such treatment, even more so than the Chiefs’ three-peat, is more painful for Butt.
San Francisco 49ers, please do not disappoint.
But the interesting part is, Butt is not discrediting Li Wei for the sake of discrediting; he genuinely believes the 49ers can defeat the Chiefs.
No hype, no derogation! One hundred percent objective!
“Obviously, ground attack is the key point, and any viewer who watched the San Francisco 49ers’ divisional and conference finals won’t deny this point.”
“The San Francisco 49ers destroyed the Minnesota Vikings and smashed the Green Bay Packers with incredible ground attack, but this isn’t their first display of ground prowess. As early as the regular season, their ground attack had become an important weapon for the team, ranking second in the season, undoubtedly the most dominant team.”
Numbers don’t lie, and this is where Butt’s confidence comes from.
“Considering the Kansas City Chiefs’ ground defense is at the bottom of the league, allowing an average of 4.9 yards per rushing play, fourth-worst in the league, it is concerning.”
“If the San Francisco 49ers’ offensive group continues the strategy from the conference finals in the Super Bowl, an easy 200-yard ground game is not surprising.”
“Of course, I understand, exceptions always exist.”
Butt can see the eager wolves and tigers in the live broadcast room, ready to leap out and defend the Kansas City Chiefs, so he preemptively addresses the doubts himself.
“However, in the divisional game against the Tennessee Titans and the conference finals against the Houston Texans, the Chiefs’ defensive coordinator Spagnuolo used a tenacious front court press strategy and top-notch execution to hold down an on-fire Derrick Henry, resulting in the Titans pushing only 85 yards in the entire ground game.”
“Now, after two weeks of preparation, facing the San Francisco 49ers’ formidable ground attack, the Chiefs may not necessarily surrender without a fight.”
Someone joined in, “But?”
Butt paused, “But,” everyone burst out laughing, including Butt himself, but he continued.
“But, the 49ers’ excellence in ground attack lies in the fact that they don’t rely on just one running back’s outstanding performance. They have three outstanding running backs, like the Houston Texans in the conference finals, ensuring Shanahan has backup plans. Even if one running back hits a wall, they can rotate at any time.”
“Additionally, the 49ers often use tight ends and wide receivers as running backs, resulting in endless ground attack tactics that catch opponents off guard.”
“In fact, the 49ers’ offensive line for road blocking isn’t top-tier, but in the divisional and conference finals, they indeed crushed the National League North giants’ ground defense. Tight end Kittel and fullback and wide receiver Kyle Yushchek’s division of responsibility and ground blocks are absolutely league-best.”
“This is Shanahan’s weapon, also his confidence.”
“So, in the conference finals, Shanahan dared to let Garoppolo attempt only eight passes yet relied on the rich, unpredictable ground attack to crush the opponent.”
“In the game against the Tennessee Titans, one key reason the Chiefs were completely caught off guard in the first quarter was the defensive front line standing too forward, completely distracted by Derrick Henry’s ground attack, allowing Tannehill’s play-action pass strategy to run them ragged.”
“Note, the 49ers have the fifth highest play-action attempt rate in the league, sixth in play-action average passing depth, and second in play-action passing yards.”
“Therefore, when facing the Titans, the Chiefs could focus solely on defending Derrick Henry to create opportunities for later turning the game around; but facing the 49ers’ Shanahan’s elusive and varied offense strategies combined with a solid ground attack can completely destroy Spagnuolo’s defense strategy.”
“The only question lies in the Chiefs’ league-leading red zone defense rate being noteworthy, the closer to the end zone, the higher the defensive efficiency; whereas the 49ers happen to be one of the teams with the most touchdown scores in the regular season’s red zone. Thus, a showdown in the red zone might determine the key to victory.”
A pause, host Paul Crosby seized a gap in the conversation, “So, you think it’s a probability issue.”
Butt shrugged slightly, “Of course, everything we are discussing now is a probability issue, only I believe the probability favors the 49ers. They have the confidence and backing for it; even with the quarterback making only eight attempts, they can still defeat Rodgers’ Packers.”
Crosby turned, “Josh?”
Josh Lawson, representing “Li Wei Fan”, known for his steady, calm demeanor…an objective professional, yet also Li Wei’s most unwavering supporter.
Lawson, “No, this time I agree with Blair.”
Everyone: ???
Sun, is it rising in the west?